Environmental scientists are worried that climate change may degrade some of India’s greenest and oldest forests in the Western Ghats, and the casualty could be species such as the Nilgiri Tahr. An ongoing study on the ‘Impact of climate on forests in India’ warns that several species native to the Ghats could be in danger and forest boundaries might change, threatening animals and migration patterns. Scientists at the Indian Institute of Science (IIS) are trying to ascertain what would happen in 2085 when carbon emissions are feared to increase to what is called the A2 scenario (with about 740 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide concentration in the air) or at least the more moderate B2 scenario (575 ppm Co2 concentration). The current level of carbon dioxide is estimated to be 320 ppm. So, as more carbon is spewed out by vehicles and industries, it would not only warm up the world and play havoc with its climate and seas, but also change the vegetation pattern. For instance, higher quantities of carbon would first increase the biomass in a process called carbon fertilisation. “By 2030-2050, timber and fuelwood production may go up”, Dr N. H. Ravindranath, professor at the Centre for Ecological Sciences, IISc, said. Since woody plants can thrive on an increased amount of carbon dioxide, they will push out grasslands that are at a disadvantage in such a scenario. Therefore, animals such as the Nilgiri Tahr will lose their habitat. “It is just an example. The Nilgiri Tahr is threatened by other factors too”, said Prof R Sukumar of the Centre for Ecological Sciences. Eventually, climate change could lead to a phenomenon called dieback when tree shoots gradually die because of heat and pests, and then tree deaths could overtake regeneration. In 50 to 100 years, there could be significant occurrences such as frequent forest fires and dying of trees, scientists noted. Tree death rates have more than doubled in old-growth forests of western US, probably because of regional warming. “We do not have exact projections or data”, Ravindranath said. “And it is not easy to study exactly how forests are changing on ground”, Sukumar added. Already there is evidence of tree line changes in the Himalayas. Trees that grow at 1,000 m altitude may start growing in the cooler 2,000 m elevation range.
Source: oheraldo
